Thursday, October 13, 2011

taking advantage of.....

....Europe, earnings season, kick-the-can mentality, well, frankly the list just goes on and on. The financial sector both here and abroad is in tough shape. It is no secret that the banks still hold portfolios of garbage and biz is bleak in many of their profit centers. The on-going crisis in Euro-land involving sovereign debt, the financial sector and governments' inability to face their current problems is combining to create strong headwinds for the sector.

In short, banks stink. That may be an over-simplification but sector rotation does not lie. Money has been and is flowing out of bank stocks and into other more attractive sectors.

One of the most efficient ways to capture the movements in the banking and financial sector stocks and do it with some amplitude is Direxion's FAZ ETF. Known as The Financial Bear, it is a 3x fund that invests in the short side of the financial sector if you will. The moves are dramatic and volatile. The ETF has been trading in a range between $50 and $80 a share for the past 2+ months. Currently it is now back at the lower end of that range, trading in the low-to-mid $50's. We are initiating a position that will either move back to the top end of the range, preferably in the $70's or will stop us out if it moves lower and falls out of its current trading range. Any movement into the high $40's taking out yesterday's low would cause us to be stopped out on the position.

Not for the weak at heart, it is a small position that will either juice the portfolio returns or create a small and negligible loss to the portfolio.



Wednesday, October 12, 2011

another quarter...another chart. : SOHU


Took a break from the blog for summer and that lasted a few more weeks into fall so here we are back with the weekly and sometimes more frequent than that updates. This time around the post will profile the Chinese Internet stock SOHU....the CN internet stox got hammered a while back and this looks like the possible beginning of Stage 2, the next leg down, as most of them (SINA, SOHU, RENN, YOKU, BIDU) are all coming up and trading near downward sloping moving averages (exponential 20 or 50 DMA).

Playing on the fact that the sector is out of favor and they have recovered quite a bit in percentage terms in the last week to trade at or slightly below some rather significant moving averages, we'll initiate a short position in SOHU. The stock is trading in the $57-$58 range, the stop is today's high of $60.64 and the expected move is down near $50 where it was trading last week.

Look for more consistent updates in the coming weeks along with new charts and current trades/positions.

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