Sunday, August 29, 2010

that makes sense

The newly revised number for GDP growth came out this past week and after a drastic downward revision proving/supporting the fact that the economy is still languishing, the DJIA is up 150 points. Go figure. Sucker rally on the news? We'll see.

This market has been a messy, 2-faced Jekyll and Hyde since early May with no sell-off or rally lasting much longer than a few weeks. The ultimate would be if the market broke the lows of early July before turning around and moving higher. Few things worse than attempting to manage money (and make money) in a market that makes higher highs and lower lows.

Obviously the markets and the participants have a lot of data and news to figure out with regards to the direction of the market. Do US as well as foreign investors want to own US equities right now or do the long-term prospects/outlook for growth and income, both on an overall national economic level as well as an individual company-specific level make sense? If not, then the markets will drift lower until either the economic tide shifts or the market gets so inexpensive on a relative and historic level that one has to jump in just to capture a low cost basis.

DJIA 10,150.65 +164.84

NASDAQ 2,153.63 +34.94

SP500 1,064.59 +17.37

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

that sinking feeling

The market don't look so hot...weak earnings reports, negative economic news, the market is taking every opportunity to fade the bid and move the market lower.

More later.

DJIA 10,213.62 -57.59

NASDAQ 2,179.76 +0.81

SP500 1,071.69 -3.94

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Saturday, August 14, 2010

the fallout

All aboard. More bad news....the media and the markets are focusing on the bad news now which is driving the market lower. Eventually the bad news will be ignored again and the good news will be the mojo that moves the market up again. Everyone has to have a reason to explain why the markets go up and down. Simple supply and demand just doesn't cut it anymore.

DJIA 10,303.15 -16.80

NASDAQ 2,173.48 -16.79

SP500 1,079.25 -4.36

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Thursday, August 12, 2010

the whipsaw effect

So to sum up, more vacation causes less posts. However, vacations are over and business is business (or something like that), so the posting will be more frequent and more frothy.

This week we've had the Fed meeting and announcements along with the knee jerk reaction and 'doh' moment that the economy is not improving and we are pretty much where we sat several months (years?) ago in terms of recovery and 'bounce-back.'

The Great Spill has seemed to pretty much wound down now due to BP's fantastic marketing efforts and their ability to spin this whole thing pretty much into a non-event.

Even the latest TD (tropical depression) couldn't re-stir the excitement over this natural catastrophe.

In currency news, the Yen is back, making gains like we haven't seen since the mid 90's which bodes well for the Japanese but one has to wonder what it means for the rest of the world.

Big down day yesterday, the DJIA losing 2.5% and the Nasdaq losing over 3%. Looks like more pain may be ahead as this downward trending market appears set to move to test the lows of 2010....or possibly this is a mere breather on the way to test the highs of 2010. Just looking at the weekly chart of the DJIA/Nasdaq/SP500 over 2010, it has been a continuous stream of lower lows and higher highs which creates a very tough market in which to make any money. Interesting to note on the SP500, yesterday saw the index move from its 200 DMA to its 50 DMA while the Nasdaq has now dropped below both averages. Not good.

This morning the negative news continues and futures are down on the latest unemployment filing story. On with the sell-off.

DJIA 10,378.83 -265.42

NASDAQ 2,208.63 -68.54

SP500 1,089.47 -31.59

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