Friday, April 27, 2007

top o' the list

nice way to end the week when one of your names tops the largest net price gainer list on the nasdaq.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 13,120.94

NASDAQ 2,557.21

SP500 1,494.07

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Thursday, April 26, 2007

this and that

So big news? The HF industry is rescuing the sub-prime mortgage industry. Surprise. The players in that space smell blood and also a huge payday as they effectively pick up entire portfolios for pennies on the dollar and then manage the risk to reap the rewards. Nice.

PTJ II is jumping into the political arena full-force. He's hosting a 500 person fund-raising dinner for B. Obama at Paul's waterfront CT estate. May 19th is the date so make sure to mark it on your calendars.

Some guy out of Calpers is griping about HF fees. So what else is new. 2/20 is the industry norm. A few funds are still in the 1/20 structure while others are feeling quite proud of their fund and going with 3/30 and then there's Simon Renaissance fund which charges a 5% mgt fee and 44% of profits. I guess that's why he made over $1B personally in 2006. Investors (private and institutional) are still paying up for the non-correlated performance to equities and/or the lower-risk-for-higher-reward formula that has worked well in the past. The space is crowded though so the industry will probably continue to see different approaches to the mgt fee/incentive fee issue.

Question: will I ever receive my Bad Aquila Deal t-shirt from Pirate Capital? Time will tell. I promise to wear it with pride if the day ever comes.

Off-shore funds have quietly fallen into the sniper scope of Congress. In the good old boy network of Washington DC, somehow the members of Congress are going against centuries of unspoken policy of letting the rich get richer (and helping them along the way) as they are proposing to limit or close the loopholes for evading federal taxes off-shore. Someone may want to remind them who funds their political campaigns.

So Citadel looks to be the latest behemoth hedge fund that will begin incubating smaller funds. Diversification and the chance to hit the winning lottery ticket with an off-the-charts performer are the probable reasons to go down this incubator path.

The latest hot term on the street: buckets. Also, the term that is being used more frequently that has ominous connotations: dark pools of liquidity. Who sits around and thinks up the stuff?

Sallie Mae went private in a $25B deal. Southwest Air and BOL are two more companies that are rumored to be on the selling block. So that will be the theme of 2007. The huge surge in PE deals. Like the HF industry before them, the PE industry is becoming the darling of institutions. Once that occurs, the money comes fast and furious. Kind of reverting back to the pre-stock market days. Has there ever been a time when public companies were being taken private at such a fast rate? Maybe back in the 80's heyday of Boesky and Miliken et al....before my time for sure. I was knee deep in 17 West and trying to pass my classes.

London vs. NYC. Looks like London is winning the battle as momentum has shifted over to the other side of the pond for who can claim the title of World' Financial Center. The HF industry in "The City" is absolutely booming. $ is being made and accumulated like crazy. Well, NYC....we're waiting....

Want to see a bunch of really nice real estate that only a small number of Americans can afford: check out brownharrisstevens.com. Unbelievable.

and finally, congrats to Amazon (amzn) for an 'amazin' quarter that blew the doors of all analyst's estimates and it trading $13 higher than where it was two days ago...cheers!'

oh yeah, and one more thing....the dow closed above 13K yesterday for the first time ever...

Happy Thursday.

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Friday, April 20, 2007

up and away

the dow is charging. Record high (again) and only a scant 32 points away from the big 13K. HF industry took in $60B in Q1, that's pretty good stuff - lots more than the previous quarter and nearly half of the total amount for 2006. Lots of money out there, looking for higher returns with 'lower' correlated risk.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 12,961.98

NASDAQ 2,526.39

SP500 1,484.35

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Friday, April 13, 2007

gaining lost ground

the three averages (djia, naz, s&p) are about where they were before the big 'correction'. Will they hit a double-top and retreat or break through to higher highs? Something to ponder over the weekend.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 12,612.13

NASDAQ 2,491.94

SP500 1,452.85

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Thursday, April 12, 2007

big ben says all is ok

fed chairman ben "the helicopter" bernanke said recently that the HF industry is doing a good job of regulating itself and "the market-based approach to the regulation of hedge funds seems to have worked well. If hedge funds did not take risks, their social benefits . . . would largely disappear." Maybe the politicians will take this as a clue that there are far more important things to 'legislate' about than the financial niche of alternative asset classes.

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Tuesday, April 10, 2007

top earner

Andy Warhol, Dollar Sign, 1982


trader monthly (and their site traderdaily dot com) announced the biggest earners of 2006. The big winner was 33 year old (and fellow VU alumnus) John Arnold who managed to be on the other side of (or at least benefited greatly from) the biggest meltdown in HF history. When Brian Hunter bet the ranch over at Amaranth last summer on natural gas positions that didn’t go his way, Arnold and his fund, Centaurus Energy, LP, were there to put the squeeze on Mr. Hunter and make millions in the process. Arnold’s overall take in 2006, when using his fund’s 3 & 30 management and incentive fee structure, works out to be a $1.5-2 billion dollar win for him. The Centaurus fund grew from approximately $1.5B to 3B over the course of 2006. Estimates put the fund’s return at over 300% without taking out fees. So with 30% of the profits going over to the fund’s GP (Arnold), he makes the top of the list, beating out long-time super-managers, Simon of Renaissance, Cohen of SAC Advisors, Lampert of ESL and last year’s winner T. Boone Pickens. So the energy sector has delivered the top earners for the past 2 years. What sector will produce the top earner in 2007?

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Monday, April 09, 2007

ipo of the year award

This IPO was much heralded when it came out nearly a year ago. The media was talking it up as one of the purest plays in getting on the VOIP bandwagon. Well, a few patent lawsuits later and this is the mess that is left of Vonage. Numerous customer service issues and fierce competition in the space have further damaged the company and its stock price.




chart courtesy of bigcharts.com

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Friday, April 06, 2007

It is a good Friday

Happy Good Friday

numbers from yesterday's close:

DJIA 12,560.20

NASDAQ 2,471.34

SP500 1,443.76

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