record profits and slowing earnings

Best of both worlds, look at Chevron, just another oil company posting record profits. Look at Amazon, leading internet retailer, still growing but earnings were slashed. Happy weekend.

DJIA 11,219.70

NASDAQ 2,094.14

SP500 1,278.55

wild ride

What a ride. There looked to be a bounce mid-week but that was quickly stomped back into the ground the next day. All the mid-east political tension is just the excuse this market needs to move lower (ie. the rationale for people to sell).

Happy Friday.

DJIA 10,868.38

NASDAQ 2,020.39

SP500 1,240.29

double bottoms

Double bottoms on the DJIA (short term) and the Nasdaq Composite (medium term), will the support provide a sustainable bounce or merely provide the next support level that will be violated in the sell-off. S&P 500 is the only index of the three that still looks half way decent from the long side.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 10,739.35

NASDAQ 2,037.35

SP500 1,236.20

crude highs

so oil is at $75/barrel and some of the pundits (Jim Rogers, former Soros crony and commodities expert) call for it going way north of $100 a barrel. Why is it going higher? Short term; current political tensions….long term; lack of any big new oil supply finds. One event that may cause the price to fall? Bird flu epidemic. Why? No reason given – maybe because so many people will be sick, no one will drive their vehicles??? Interesting scenario to speculate on though. So anyway, how does all this translate to the price at the pump? Not well. Where are gas prices going? Higher….much higher. How will that effect the economy and the generic consumer’s wallet? Probably not good. The US driver has been so accustomed to paying far below what the rest of the world pays for gas, it will be a shock to the system and the family budget when gas hits prices never before dreamed of in this country. Expect lots of uproar from the media and a knee jerk reaction from the government. Unfortunately for both parties, the big oils know a thing or two about economics and the theory of inelastic demand. Crank up the price and the demand doesn’t fall away. We’re hooked on gas and there isn’t a thing we can do about it. Yeah, hybrids and alternative fuel will save the day, but not anytime in the next few decades. So live it up big oil ‘cause you got the US driver by the throat. And if Rogers is right and we still have 15+ years to go in this commodity bull run (not sure how he figures that) then it is only going to get worse before it gets better. Cheers!

7/7, it's a good day

Another Friday, another sell-off. The dog days of summer are here to stay for awhile. Despite the down markets, the markets aren't down all that much. Call me when the Naz is under 2K and all the hot stocks are plummeting through their 200 dma. Then we'll have something to talk about.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 11,090.67

NASDAQ 2,130.06

SP500 1,265.48

end of Q2

The bombshell that was dropped last week regarding fund registration is still being worked out. Now certain legislators are proposing legislation that would supervise and regulate funds. Congress setting the rules for hedge funds? That sounds like a recipe for disaster. This coupled with the short-seller witchhunt, the hedge fund industry finds itself squarely in the crosshairs of media and government once again.

A late-week pop going into a shortened week, it is anyone’s guess whether this two day rally will have any legs after everyone returns on Wednesday or Thursday from the long weekend. With all the market gyrations over the past few weeks, the portfolio remains largely unchanged, some names gave back a bit of profit, some others gained a few bucks. Note: it is interesting the pop coincided with the end of Q2. If you need the definition of 'window dressing', you may want to pull your buy-on-open market orders set for Monday. So Paulson is worth $700M? And he gets a break on the taxes due to his acceptance of the invite to join the administration. I always thought capital gains tax was a first class problem. Evidently for Paulson, it's not even a problem.

Happy weekend and happy 4th for those that are staying away on Monday.

DJIA 11,150.22

NASDAQ 2,172.09

SP500 1,270.20