Wednesday, June 14, 2006

all about perspective

look at the most common indices (dow 30, s&p 500, and the nasdaq composite) on long term charts of at least 3+ years and one gets a sense of how far we have come and how far we could possibly fall. Although the indices have broken their near term trends (3 to 6 months), things are just beginning to look sketchy on the medium term trends (1-2 years) and if one were to take a step back and view the overall trends of the markets over the last 5 years, the markets continue to make higher highs and higher lows; the true definition of a ‘bull’ market and an upward trending one. For example, even with the hard sell-off the nasdaq has experienced in the last month, it still has not (as of this entry on June 14th) made a lower low. Until it breaks the low of October 2005, (which may happen here shortly), this market has not made lower lows since the autumn of 2002. How long do bull markets last? It may be a good time to find the answer to that question. Of course, the relativity of this point matters only when considering the investment time frame. For classic long-term ‘buy and hold’ investors (those that were lucky enough to have made it through 2000-2002), the performance and opportunities of these markets will mean something entirely different than the goals and opportunities of the short term (less than 6 months) investors. Also, long-only investors will be viewing the charts differently than the investor who can take both long and short positions. Perspective and strategy can make the same object look entirely different depending on where one stands. As the current hype continually circles above the carcass that is the current market environment, one only needs to pause, take a step back and look at the bigger picture to realize that maybe things are not quite that bad after all. Having said all that, there sure was a boatload of money to be made to the short side the last month.

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