Rubicon Capital

long weekend - EU gets the jitters

2012-01-16T14:49:00.000-08:00

A long MLK weekend leads us into a short trading week. Over the long US weekend the S&P guys in Euro-land were busy taking a hard look at the state of the sovereign entities and their ability to pay back their debts. Evidently, the "sure thing" of yesterday ain't such a sure thing anymore as people in the know have essentially come out and said that Greece will default shortly and that France is getting a downgrade for the large amount of toxic garbage on the nation's balance sheet.

Earnings season just got underway last week in the States and the season continues over the next several weeks. People have noted the de-coupling of the US markets with Europe but we will see if a few bad earnings on this side of the pond or a few downgrades on that side of the pond gets everyone re-coupled in the near term.

The slow melt-up since the October 2011 lows on extremely light volume is running out of steam and even in the past 5 years there are only a handful of instances that have such over-bought characteristics.

We are looking for a pull-back off the recent highs of this past week, maybe with a head-fake to the upside thrown in for good measure, but will be looking to play the long side of volatility or the short side of many high beta stocks that are levitating high above their 50 and 200 DMAs as of late.

			Dow Jones 12,422.06 -48.96 (-0.39%) S&P 500 1,289.09 -6.41 (-0.49%) Nasdaq 2,710.67 -14.03 (-0.51%)

happy new year 2012 !!!!!

2012-01-04T12:49:00.000-08:00

Another year, and with it comes another opportunity to put up great risk-adjusted returns and preserve capital while making money.

Goals, dreams, opportunities, hard work and just a little bit o' luck (?) - here's to a GREAT year!

With 15 minutes left in today's trading:

Dow	12,422.20	24.87	0.20%
S&P 500	1,276.69	-0.37	-0.03%
Nasdaq	2,649.65	0.93	0.04%

I am going to be looking at a large set of charts later today and will put up a trade idea that looks good with an attractive risk/reward profile.

Market summary for pre-market today

2011-12-20T06:27:00.000-08:00

from the kids at bloomberg...here is the data from yesterday's close

Dow	11,766.30	-100.13	-0.84%
S&P 500	1,205.35	-14.31	-1.17%
Nasdaq	2,523.14	-32.19	-1.26%

back to 1100?

2011-12-20T06:17:00.000-08:00

So the S&P 500 is teetering precariously at 1200. Trading right below its 20/50/200 day exponential moving averages and just below its 50 simple MA. Could it possibly re-rest the lows of 1100 on the S&P set back in early August and October? Economic date in the US is mixed and optimism coming from the EU is fading. The pundits say it will take a catalyst to drive this market up and above the 1265 mark on the SP500. I would think a catalyst of the same magnitude but to the negative would be the catalyst to the drive this market back down. The what and when are the only questions left. Just a fact to keep in mind, when the market leaders are all recently beginning to trade under their 200 DMA's, it is never a good sign.

taking advantage of.....

2011-10-13T07:21:00.000-07:00

....Europe, earnings season, kick-the-can mentality, well, frankly the list just goes on and on. The financial sector both here and abroad is in tough shape. It is no secret that the banks still hold portfolios of garbage and biz is bleak in many of their profit centers. The on-going crisis in Euro-land involving sovereign debt, the financial sector and governments' inability to face their current problems is combining to create strong headwinds for the sector.

In short, banks stink. That may be an over-simplification but sector rotation does not lie. Money has been and is flowing out of bank stocks and into other more attractive sectors.

One of the most efficient ways to capture the movements in the banking and financial sector stocks and do it with some amplitude is Direxion's FAZ ETF. Known as The Financial Bear, it is a 3x fund that invests in the short side of the financial sector if you will. The moves are dramatic and volatile. The ETF has been trading in a range between $50 and $80 a share for the past 2+ months. Currently it is now back at the lower end of that range, trading in the low-to-mid $50's. We are initiating a position that will either move back to the top end of the range, preferably in the $70's or will stop us out if it moves lower and falls out of its current trading range. Any movement into the high $40's taking out yesterday's low would cause us to be stopped out on the position.

Not for the weak at heart, it is a small position that will either juice the portfolio returns or create a small and negligible loss to the portfolio.

another quarter...another chart. : SOHU

2011-10-12T12:42:00.001-07:00

Took a break from the blog for summer and that lasted a few more weeks into fall so here we are back with the weekly and sometimes more frequent than that updates. This time around the post will profile the Chinese Internet stock SOHU....the CN internet stox got hammered a while back and this looks like the possible beginning of Stage 2, the next leg down, as most of them (SINA, SOHU, RENN, YOKU, BIDU) are all coming up and trading near downward sloping moving averages (exponential 20 or 50 DMA).

Playing on the fact that the sector is out of favor and they have recovered quite a bit in percentage terms in the last week to trade at or slightly below some rather significant moving averages, we'll initiate a short position in SOHU. The stock is trading in the $57-$58 range, the stop is today's high of $60.64 and the expected move is down near $50 where it was trading last week.

Look for more consistent updates in the coming weeks along with new charts and current trades/positions.

Q2 update

2011-06-26T14:02:00.000-07:00

Wow, tax day? That was the last update? How the months fly. So here we are in late June, coming up on the close of Q2. (and QE2)...the markets have sold off in the last few months, the bears finally got their pay-off in many stocks in many sectors. The global recovery or lack thereof is setting everyone on uneasy street and the volatility although not great has been a bit better as of late.

Gold and Silver have pulled back along with oil and other commodities. Best of luck for the upcoming months of the dog days of summer.

Happy early 4th for those that are making this week and next week short trading weeks.

how about another chart? CTXS

2011-04-15T14:28:00.000-07:00

So the markets are showing staying power but no one is going to be a true believer until the S&P can break the highs of a few weeks ago and more importantly the highs of mid-February. Consensus is fairly mixed whether we are in the middle of a double-top or just consolidating before breaking out to new highs above 1344. The 200 day SMA and EMA are both providing nice support and earnings season will probably be the catalyst that moves this market higher (or lower.)

In the meantime, we continue to search for the strongest stocks that are moving higher and the weakest stocks that are moving lower.

Most recently we profiled RIMM and our trade thesis. We continue to maintain that position with belief that it has more room to run to the downside.

Today, the focus is on Citrix Systems, CTXS. The stock is at essentially all-time highs. It is a strong company with a smart management team, best-in-breed products and fundamentally the company has been growing both top-line and bottom-line numbers. Technically, the stock has been forming an ascending triangle since August 2010. The stock has been bid up to the low 70s several times before meeting resistance and selling off first into the mid 50s, then again to the low 60s and most recently into the high 60s. Each time the stock sells off, buyers step in earlier to buy up shares. The psychology of the investor/trader/buyer is that they have a positive outlook for Citrix and are buying the pullbacks with the hopes that it will be moving higher in the near future.

The stock broke-out to all-time highs in early April and has pulled back to the low 70s and is consolidating. What was once resistance has now become support. This is Technical Analysis 101. We are very recently long the stock from the low 70s on the initial move and anticipate a move higher to the low to mid 80s in the near term. Our stop is the low 0f 8 days ago. The stop is best defined as any print with a 71 handle. If this level is reached we will sell out of the position since it will confirm our thesis was wrong since the stock would have broken support, changing the dynamics of the trade set-up.

CTXS reports numbers after the close on Wednesday, April 27th, giving only 7 trading sessions left before the earnings hit.

In other news, oil has been trading on either side of $110/barrel, gold flirts with all-time highs, the Japan Nuclear Meltdown is occupying less of the news and the VIX has drifted back to the recent lows in the 15s. It will be interested if the VIX can solidly move to the 14s or will another Armageddon scenario drive it back up?

DJIA 12,341
SP500 1,319
Nasdaq 2,764

RIMM clings to the mid $50's

2011-04-01T15:53:00.000-07:00

Thought a chart would be a nice change of pace. This is a stock that we are currently short. The company reported disappointing earnings last week. The general story for the bears is that even though Research in Motion and its competitors are in an expanding market, RIMM's products are capturing a smaller percentage of that increasing 'pie' and losing market share to the likes of Google's Android and the ever-popular Iphone. Their tablet product has been underwhelming and the chart has "negative outlook" stamped all over it. The stock gapped down below its exponential 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages in response to the earnings report and management's comments. Technically, it broke two very well-defined upward trend lines, the most recent dating back to late October 2010 and a longer upward trend line that began in mid-August 2010. Most recently, during the last week there has been continued downward pressure on the stock down to the $56 mark where it has found near-term support. Below $55 there is a large gap to fill and the next level of support is at $50. We are shorting this stock in anticipation of it making that move to $50, thus capturing a $6 to $8/share profit on the position.

All for now.

Q1 comes to a close

2011-03-31T13:42:00.000-07:00

Fairly impressive quarter on several fronts, the market's quick snap-back and V-shaped recovery from the Japan disaster, also what is going on with oil, gold and treasuries. One more quarter until go time, lots of work to do in May.

what's a month between friends?

2011-03-08T10:31:00.000-08:00

How the weeks fly by....so busy recently focusing on the markets and stocks and positions and marketing and fund organization that the blog entries each Friday simply got sidelined for a few weeks, well now they are back - and with a vengeance! Also throwing stuff up on twitter as well which has been fun/interesting. Just working the social media angle. So "OIL" is firmly over $100/barrel, creeping towards $110, which equates to a bigger chunk of the taxpayer's disposable income going towards filling up their gas tanks and handing over their hard earned dollars and tax cut savings to Big Oil.

Interesting story about XLE and the amount of institutional money flowing into that energy ETF. Smart money knows oil and subsequently gas is going higher. On the global front, first it was Egypt, then Libya, now the experts are saying Bahrain and/or Algeria are going to go into chaos, followed shortly thereafter by Saudi Arabia. We will see how many dominoes topple in this middle east throw-down. The economy is still showing starts of moving in the right direction so that bodes well for the markets but temper that with inflation and fears of rising oil prices and it is an interesting environment these days.

The VIX has been jumpy lately bouncing around its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Gotta love volatility - it is how we all get paid.

Keep your friends close, your enemies closer and your stops even closer.

super bowl weekend

2011-02-06T22:32:00.000-08:00

Congrats to the Packers...

will it ever stop snowing, the year of the Snowzilla...the Snowpacalypse....the arrival of Snowmageddon.

Gotta love the news media.

So gold is down, oil is waffling, Egypt is chaotic, vix is complacent and the buy/buy/buy mentality of the equities markets continues, although they are rapidly losing ground on rising commodity prices. Everyone will someday have to pay the toll on that disparity.

Trying a new "copy & paste" look - we'll see how it flies.

Dow	12,092.15	+29.89
Nasdaq	2,769.30	+15.42
S&P 500	1,310.87	+3.77

off to a great start

2011-01-17T14:37:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year (again) - hope 2011 continues to move in the right direction for you and your positions.

Oil chugs above $90, VIX remain complacent, look slike QE2 is still driving the markets as they only take a brief rest before continuing their climb. The best and worst of the 2010 HF performers are coming out now. Interesting to see who is on which list.

Good meetings lately and more coming up. $ behind $ is always a good thing.

happy new year!

2011-01-01T23:31:00.000-08:00

a full week of trading due to rules that say an exchange has to be open the last day of a month or quarter which Friday satisifed on both fronts.

Happy Holidays

2010-12-26T09:13:00.000-08:00

shortened trading week with a long weekend off. Friday was a chance to do last minute holiday-based chores and take the focus away from the year-end market activities. Big east coast storm cancels flights, postpones NFL game, and wreaks havoc on holiday travel plans.

Monday back at it for the final push of 2010. VIX has continued to slide into the mid teens as complacency overwhelms this market sentiment.

Best of everything to you and yours in 2011.

the final push

2010-12-19T08:42:00.000-08:00

Poised to finish the year higher, the major indices are trading sideways gathering energy and buyers for the final push the last trading days of 2010. QE2 and the Fed's never-ending support of assets creates a fairly broad safety net for investors.

In other news, the tax code remains unchanged for 2011, oil still sits in the upper 80s and gold sits right at its 50 DMA.

DJIA 11,491.91 -7.34

NASDAQ 2,642.97 +5.66

SP500 1,243.91 +1.04

extended like a rap star's hair

2010-12-13T21:24:00.000-08:00

extensions, the market is extended like a bad hair day...ready for a breather and maybe even....dare I say... a pullback???? The major indices are getting fairly elevated from the 50 DMA, whenever that happens, the market tend to trade sideways, thus coming closer to an ever rising MA line, or they retreat to get back to said line in a much quicker fashion. The INDU, COMPX and SPX are all fairly elevated away from their moving averages. Thus, positioning for a rise in volatility and a softening of the some of the weaker stocks that are currently in downtrends.

Meanwhile, the topics of tax cuts and healthcare rage on the hill and oil is making a tank of gas a pretty hefty outlay of cash. Gold keeps climbing as everyone sees a devaluation of the dollar and wants to own something instrinsic that actually is worth something.

mid-week update (again)

2010-12-07T15:51:00.000-08:00

Most stocks sold off in the last hour, pushing the DJIA negative while the other indices barely remained in the positive.

The universe of tradeable stocks has been refined/defined. It boils down to approximately 30-35 stocks that have the following general characteristics:

1. daily minimum volume of 1M shares on an average day, most stocks in this universe trade in the 3M-20M share/day range
2. priced in the low $30's at a minimum to the multi hundred $/share price range (see goog and isrg and nflx for high $$ examples)
3. they move, they have high betas, they are more volatile than normal stocks and when they move they can move big, multi points moves in a trading session are not uncommon.
4. most are very popular names that are followed by traders/investors/the financial community & the media alike
5. they represent the best-of-breed in many different sectors, meaning they are well known outside of their stock symbols and are universally known for their products, companies, management teams, stories, etc.

Of course there are always exceptions to these general rules as some stocks not on this list will catch fire and move (either up or down) due to some event or catalyst. Those particular stocks are always up for consideration if there is an increase in volume and the stock is moving.

DJIA 11,359.16 -3.03

NASDAQ 2,598.49 +3.57

SP500 1,223.75 +0.63

end of November update

2010-11-28T08:06:00.000-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving weekend. Shortened session on Friday. Busy month with the markets generally moving up and some stocks on trajectories to the moon.

Economically, nothing much has changed, easy money continues to be pumped into the system, the dollar languishes and gold remains strong if not choppy.

The major indices appear to be consolidating near their 200 DMA so we will see if they rebound or break their averages.

DJIA 11,092.00 -95.28

NASDAQ 2,534.56 -8.56

SP500 1,189.40 -8.95

QE2 - like it's 1999

2010-11-06T22:31:00.000-07:00

S&P500 cleared the highs of April, the government announced they're buying another $500 B of bond and rates are going to stay unbelievably and historically low for the foreseeable future. Inflation? Who cares! Unemployment? Who cares! Cratering dollar? Who cares! Crazy valuations? Who cares! The good ole' USA has backstopped the markets and we the investor/trader/401k holder are going to reap the benefits.

Ben and the gang have us covered. Go long and go strong.

DJIA 11,444.08 +9.24

NASDAQ 2,578.98 +1.64

SP500 1,225.85 +4.79

the rare mid-week update

2010-10-20T14:07:00.000-07:00

Nothing like taking a full 1 month break from doing blog posts....last post was September 20th, so thought I'd jump back into the fray on October 20th and post another.

For all the ups and downs, the S&P continues to chug along on its upward trajectory. Gold continues to climb, oil is hanging in there, natty gas is moving even lower and the Commitments of Traders report shows that even though the bull run of the S&P is over, dollars keep pouring in to the index and pushing it higher. Meanwhile, the VIX is now solidly under 20, a sign of complacency and calm.

Elections are weeks away, the rush of earnings season is in full effect and the earth mover stocks continue to lead the charge (FCX/JOYG/BUCY/CAT/DE) while the cloud computing stocks have stumbled recently. In the battle of Old Tech vs. New Tech, Old Tech wins this round.

DJIA 11,107.97 +129.35

NASDAQ 2,457.39 +20.44

SP500 1,178.17 +12.27

it is about time...

2010-09-20T15:07:00.000-07:00

...the markets finally broke out of their most recent sideways trading channel. The SPX has been hitting resistance at 1130 and everyone was keying on that level. Early in trading today, it broke through that key resistance level which sent the shorts scrambling to cover which of course drove the markets higher thus resulting in a very impressive day for all the major indices. Headfake or truly moving higher? Stay tuned.

DJIA 10,753.62 +145.77

NASDAQ 2,355.83 +40.22

SP500 1,142.71 +17.12

a laborious week

2010-09-12T21:19:00.000-07:00

Short busy week, summer is un-officially over and it is time to get back to work, not dog days of summer work but serious market-moving money-making work.

DJIA 10,462.77 +47.53

NASDAQ 2,242.48 +6.28

SP500 1,109.55 +5.37

that makes sense

2010-08-29T14:55:00.000-07:00

The newly revised number for GDP growth came out this past week and after a drastic downward revision proving/supporting the fact that the economy is still languishing, the DJIA is up 150 points. Go figure. Sucker rally on the news? We'll see.

This market has been a messy, 2-faced Jekyll and Hyde since early May with no sell-off or rally lasting much longer than a few weeks. The ultimate would be if the market broke the lows of early July before turning around and moving higher. Few things worse than attempting to manage money (and make money) in a market that makes higher highs and lower lows.

Obviously the markets and the participants have a lot of data and news to figure out with regards to the direction of the market. Do US as well as foreign investors want to own US equities right now or do the long-term prospects/outlook for growth and income, both on an overall national economic level as well as an individual company-specific level make sense? If not, then the markets will drift lower until either the economic tide shifts or the market gets so inexpensive on a relative and historic level that one has to jump in just to capture a low cost basis.

DJIA 10,150.65 +164.84

NASDAQ 2,153.63 +34.94

SP500 1,064.59 +17.37

that sinking feeling

2010-08-22T14:01:00.000-07:00

The market don't look so hot...weak earnings reports, negative economic news, the market is taking every opportunity to fade the bid and move the market lower.

More later.

DJIA 10,213.62 -57.59

NASDAQ 2,179.76 +0.81

SP500 1,071.69 -3.94

the fallout

2010-08-14T20:04:00.000-07:00

All aboard. More bad news....the media and the markets are focusing on the bad news now which is driving the market lower. Eventually the bad news will be ignored again and the good news will be the mojo that moves the market up again. Everyone has to have a reason to explain why the markets go up and down. Simple supply and demand just doesn't cut it anymore.

DJIA 10,303.15 -16.80

NASDAQ 2,173.48 -16.79

SP500 1,079.25 -4.36

the whipsaw effect

2010-08-12T05:36:00.001-07:00

So to sum up, more vacation causes less posts. However, vacations are over and business is business (or something like that), so the posting will be more frequent and more frothy.

This week we've had the Fed meeting and announcements along with the knee jerk reaction and 'doh' moment that the economy is not improving and we are pretty much where we sat several months (years?) ago in terms of recovery and 'bounce-back.'

The Great Spill has seemed to pretty much wound down now due to BP's fantastic marketing efforts and their ability to spin this whole thing pretty much into a non-event.

Even the latest TD (tropical depression) couldn't re-stir the excitement over this natural catastrophe.

In currency news, the Yen is back, making gains like we haven't seen since the mid 90's which bodes well for the Japanese but one has to wonder what it means for the rest of the world.

Big down day yesterday, the DJIA losing 2.5% and the Nasdaq losing over 3%. Looks like more pain may be ahead as this downward trending market appears set to move to test the lows of 2010....or possibly this is a mere breather on the way to test the highs of 2010. Just looking at the weekly chart of the DJIA/Nasdaq/SP500 over 2010, it has been a continuous stream of lower lows and higher highs which creates a very tough market in which to make any money. Interesting to note on the SP500, yesterday saw the index move from its 200 DMA to its 50 DMA while the Nasdaq has now dropped below both averages. Not good.

This morning the negative news continues and futures are down on the latest unemployment filing story. On with the sell-off.

DJIA 10,378.83 -265.42

NASDAQ 2,208.63 -68.54

SP500 1,089.47 -31.59

the volatilty index

2010-07-25T23:23:00.000-07:00

Vacation-shortened week, not much to report other than the VIX/volatility is at a near-term triple bottom which if the support holds means more volatility in the near future.

DJIA 10,424.62 +102.32

NASDAQ 2,269.47 +23.58

SP500 1,102.66 +8.99

9500 here we come?

2010-07-18T13:55:00.000-07:00

After make a new lower high, the indices appear to be heading back to the lower edge of their trend channel which on the DJIA looks to be about 9500 give or take a few points between friends.

Summer is here...the markets are selling off. Not much else new. New marketing campaign underway with some heavy hitters with connex to new pools of investors. Focusing on the yield from that venture to be sure.

Financial regulation looks to be the latest greatest invention to keep capitalism from running wild. We'll have to see if it works this time around.

Couple of good books are keeping my attention these days, one is the story of the death of LEH and the other is a diary of a HF manager. Both are entertaining and informative.

From the long perspective, oil is struggling and GLD is hanging on but looking under pressure. The VIX hit a recent double bottom in the 23-24 range and that support could mean the markets are in for more wild days ahead.

Short week as vacation is on the horizon. Gotta grab that hot sunny weather when it is here...soon we'll be walking in a winter wonderland once again.

DJIA 10,097.90 -261.41

NASDAQ 2,179.05 -70.03

SP500 1,064.88 -31.60

the teeter-totter won't stop

2010-07-08T06:13:00.000-07:00

Another volatile day on the street with the major averages up around 3%. It will be interesting to see it the DJIA can move all the way back to recent highs around 10500 before beginning the next leg down. Or to throw more confusion in the mix, it will break past that before making its move to lower lows.

Oil seems to be suffering a bit as of late which is still baffling given the hype surrounding The Spill. Here is a great reason/excuse to ramp up the price of the commodity by Big Oil and it hasn't happened yet.

Well, vacation is over, back to the grind, a short week seems even shorter for some reason.

Hot hot hot, what else can you say. Triple digits with high humidity. Some of us even search out a higher level of heat.

The world cup ends Sunday, could one ask for a better set of teams? Should be a great game, pulling for the Orange but looks like this is the day for Espana.

DJIA 10,018.28 +274.66

NASDAQ 2,159.47 +65.69

SP500 1,060.27 +32.21

Milling about

2010-06-28T22:45:00.000-07:00

Small moves have characterized the last few days as investors digest the myriad news stories regarding the economy, the spill, the euro, and all the goings-ons in Washington.

Summer is hot and humid and the dog days are upon us. Godspeed.

DJIA 10,138.52 -5.29

NASDAQ 2,220.65 -2.83

SP500 1,074.57 -2.19

unchanged

2010-06-21T00:26:00.000-07:00

DJIA 10,450.64 +16.47

NASDAQ 2,309.80 UNCH

SP500 1,117.51 +1.47

short week

2010-06-13T23:38:00.000-07:00

Outta town and traveling the first half of the week, caught the 2nd half in town. Pundits are saying the economy is fragile in its recovery...Ok.

DJIA 10,211.07 +38.54

NASDAQ 2,243.60 +24.89

SP500 1,091.60 +4.76

traveling & volatility

2010-05-30T23:48:00.000-07:00

Volatility rules the day. Traveling last day of this week, missed more double and triple digits move in the major indices. Out of town all this upcoming week, a short one with the holiday tomorrow. Enjoy the kick-off to summer.

DJIA 10,136.63 -122.36

NASDAQ 2,257.04 -20.64

SP500 1,089.41 -13.65

more 'downward pressure'

2010-05-24T23:12:00.000-07:00

The sell-off continues. Investors and traders are taking profits in equities, commodities, currencies, you name it and they are selling it. Getting out of positions and putting on their shorts.

Oil has pulled back due to the Euro hangover. Seems everyone is quick to blame Europe and sovereign debt as the reason for pretty much anything these days.

DJIA 10,066.57 -126.82

NASDAQ 2,213.55 -15.49

SP500 1,073.65 -14.04

wild wild week

2010-05-09T20:50:00.000-07:00

so the dow drops more than 900 points in 1 day and everyone is pointing fingers. The nasadaq has officially pulled back over 10% and we are now in a 'correction' - we'll have to see how far this things goes.

Was it Greece, an errant fat finger, warring exchanges or a combination of a few factors?

DJIA 10,380.43 -139.89

NASDAQ 2,265.64 -54.00

SP500 1,110.88 -17.27

Greece circling the drain

2010-04-27T12:24:00.001-07:00

It finally happened, there were rumors and then those rumors were discounted as just exaggerations and lies. The guys who has purchased the CDS positions on Greek debt long ago were sitting patiently and today it is paying off as the debt got cut to junk and spreads again rose into record territory.

Kudos to those who saw it coming early. Of course that didn't do anything real positive for the markets today.

DJIA 10,991.99 -213.04

NASDAQ 2,471.47 -51.48

SP500 1,183.71 -28.34

fast and furious

2010-04-20T12:43:00.000-07:00

Outta town last Friday, keeping busy, very busy though. Markets idle but things are ramping around here. Myriad opps on multi fronts, hard to keep it all prioritized and focused. Markets chug upward, pausing here and there before moving higher. Even oil and gold although selling off recently are still within earshot of recent highs. Healthcare has taken a breather and the volcano is stealing all the headlines. Even a recent vix pop wasn't enough to get a reaction as it is now moving back towards its lows.

Back for more on Friday.

big break

2010-04-07T11:48:00.000-07:00

Spring break, winter break, quarter-end break, throw in good friday and easter and you got lots going on. The market continues to trend up.

Busy with marketing, research and admin stuff. Keep it rolling.

these markets look....

2010-03-14T15:41:00.000-07:00

strong. The naz is riding the wave, the djia consolidated and recently popped and the S&P is looking good as well. The market seems to ignore bad news and run up on good news. Staying long as long as the trend is up.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,624.69 +12.85

NASDAQ 2,367.66 -0.80

SP500 1,149.99 -0.25

late day fade

2010-03-09T18:00:00.001-08:00

Middle of the week update. Busy last week, on it this week.

So to recap:

-the market leaders are starting to show their faces at the front
-oil pushes above $80/barrel
-Barack is back pushing healthcare
-the biggest HF's are getting bigger on the AUM scale
-all set-up work has been done - now on to the marketing
-lots of attention to the 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs these days - a great hedge
-more books hit the stores this week -the topic: the last few years in the markets

All for now. Stay long until the market shows it is reversing. Will it set near time highs or reverse and break the lows of last month?

Today was the 1 year anniversary of the bottoming-out of the markets. Today marked the big reversal which resulted in a 60-70% push to the upside in the major indices and huge returns in various individual stocks (aka financials).

Have a good rest of week.

DJIA 10,564.38 +11.86

NASDAQ 2,340.68 +8.47

SP500 1,140.44 +1.94

critical point

2010-02-28T12:00:00.000-08:00

So looking at the major indices, a few weeks back they had their pullback, then they experienced a bit of a recovery, the standard 50% retracement, and now they have been trending in a sideways pattern before they make their next move. Will that be up to newer highs or lower to break the lows of a few weeks ago?

The PIIGS and the Euro are on the radar of everyone out there who has a stake in the global markets. Oil is trying to break through $80 a barrel again and the US equity market leaders are not leading the pack on this latest rally.

Put your shorts on, keep the stops tight and look for the writing on the wall.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,325.26 +4.23

NASDAQ 2,238.26 +4.04

SP500 1,104.49 +1.55

working hard to keep positive

2010-02-21T09:18:00.000-08:00

The markets have posted something like 7 or 8 days of positive numbers on the major indices. Not by much but each day it seems they add a few points to their gains.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,402.35 +9.45

NASDAQ 2,243.87 +2.16

SP500 1,109.17 +2.42

spinning the wheels

2010-02-13T21:17:00.000-08:00

Wrapping up a week, getting ready for a shortened week upcoming. The major averages essentially stayed in a very narrow trading range this week. Various news stories that got traction and lost traction throughout the week (see Greece) caused for waffling on many fronts in the USD, commodities, financials and the old man VIX.

Perhaps things will get sorted out a bit over the weekend and we can resume that long slow decline into oblivion. That may be a bit pessimistic but with the economy and real estate in an irrational levitation, it is only a matter of time before the laws of gravity take over once again. Of course there are still plenty of stocks on the upward trend and more defensive plays to the long side. But oh the shorts....

New name, new vigor, new targets, new motivation.

Happy long weekend and keep digging out from last week.

DJIA 10,099.14 -45.05

NASDAQ 2,183.53 +6.12

SP500 1,075.51 -2.96

Ketchin' UP

2010-01-30T14:59:00.001-08:00

Out of town last weekend, we had some other non-work related items to take care of over the weekend, wasn't able to post the weekly update and random collection of dis-connected comments.

So the indices are getting awfully close to having that 'rolling over and dying' kind of look to them. They are breaking, getting ready to break or have already broken some major upward trend lines of support. Will this mean we are headed lower or is it the all-too-common head fake before taking the market higher?

Trailer for Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps is out now. 1:30 of spine-tingling action featuring an old MD and a goofy SLB. I also had the chance to read the screenplay (all 125 pages of it) last night and I have to say the read isn't half bad. Based on how slick the trailer looks, along with the plot and dialogue laid out in the script, they could actually have a shot of piecing together a pretty good film -will it ever match the greatness (minus Daryl H's disastrous role) of the original. Bud Fox and the brick cell phone even make cameos in the new film.

Of course the movie takes its digs at the HF cowboys and it has several thinly veiled references to big hitters like Stevie Cohen's SAC Advisors and Also Dan Loeb's Third Point. Lots of jetting across the pond, parting with rich Russians, the Dubai scene, lots of clubbing and fast cars and bikes and scantily clad models. You know, just an average day at the office.

The movie is set to open in theatres April 23rd. I'm sure I'll be catching it soon thereafter.

In more market-related news, the VIX is up, the tech stocks are down, oil and gold are both down, what's going on?? As they are always fond of saying, time will tell.

Re-reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, such a great book, it's good to go back and re-live the ups and downs of Larry Livingstone's trading career.

Also had a chance to read the Bear Stearns book, Street Fighters, chronicling the last 72 hours in the life of Bear. I had a chance to read the John Paulson book too, it's pretty darn interesting. The book also tells the tales of several other managers who were on the same track as JP but met with varying degrees of success on the trade. Probably going to read Diary of a HF Manager next, or possibly Greenblat's book, not sure which one first - we'll see what kind of mood we're in.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,067.33 -53.13

NASDAQ 2,147.35 -31.65

SP500 1,073.87 -10.66

and we're off.....

2010-01-17T09:07:00.000-08:00

Oil and Gold seem to dominate the financial sector news blotter right now. Throw in the gyrations of the US dollar and there's a recipe for some volatility in 2010.

Lots of good books out right now. Just finished Street Fighters: the last 72 hours of Bear Stearns. Many good titles that cover the meltdown of several firms, the credit crisis in general and the few investors that saw the impending doom and reacted correctly.

Looks like lots of potential changes at C in the coming months. Wonder where Count Vic will end up?

Options galore in the fund: partners/strategy/goals. Big decisions.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,609.65 -100.90

NASDAQ 2,287.99 -28.75

SP500 1,136.03 -12.43

kicking it off again

2010-01-10T13:09:00.000-08:00

A new year, a new performance counter. The tally re-sets to 0% on 1/1/2010 and now it's go time again. As far as markets, oil is on the move again, the equity indices are looking good after a final year-end run. The VIX and trailing and forward looking P/E on the major indices are essentially being ignored right now as the bull market rally or as some call it, bear market rally, pushes onward.

Renewed vigor, new possibilities and a focused commitment. All good for January 2010.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,618.19 +11.33

NASDAQ 2,317.17 +17.12

SP500 1,144.98 +3.29

wrapping things up in '09

2009-12-27T09:43:00.000-08:00

Short week, finished on a positive note. Another short week upcoming as we close out the decade.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,520.10 +53.66

NASDAQ 2,285.69 +16.05

SP500 1,126.48 +5.89

the effects of December

2009-12-19T20:41:00.000-08:00

The holidays are upon us, Hanukkah, Christmas ramp-up, other holidays I'm sure, festivus? Anyway, the December effect seems to be doing okay, a few down days this week but overall things held their own.

Huge snowstorm blowing through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend....safe travels to all.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,328.89 +20.63

NASDAQ 2,211.69 +31.64

SP500 1,102.47 +6.39

lotsa steam

2009-12-13T22:33:00.000-08:00

this market continues chuggin' every so slowly upwards. Plenty of travel this week, much more than I like but due to various reasons, it had to be done.

Overall the market looks ok, can we have that end-of-the-year run to cap off a fine performance for the indices?

And what's up with Citigroup? More rumors than a Tiger soap opera...and yet the stock is fading into the horizon.

DJIA 10,471.50 +65.67

NASDAQ 2,190.31 -0.55

SP500 1,106.41 +4.06

vacations and holidays

2009-12-04T18:14:00.000-08:00

Off last Friday due to the holiday and short trading day. This week has been busy with non-market related goings-ons....and more travel this week and next. Then we're right in the midst of the holidays again. Quick.

Lots of alerts set but not much triggering. The longs are working fine to the upside. There are short candidates that only need to inch up a bit more to get close to their lower highs so that risk can be mitigated and stops can be tight. Then we short 'em and wait for the fall.

Oil meanders around the mid to upper 70's, natty gas sets a new low according to the graph on UNG, one for which we are patiently waiting. The VIX appears to be setting up to go under 20. The hey-days of VIX over 60, 70, 80 (!!!!???) look to be a distant memory. And finally, can gold go any higher?

We'll watch out for the December Effect, which is the new January Effect. Just like Tiger is the new Eliot.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 10,388.90 +22.75

NASDAQ 2,194.35 +21.21

SP500 1,105.98 +6.06

weakening?

2009-11-22T10:16:00.000-08:00

Market is running out of steam as the constant move upward seems to be taking its toll. Short week upcoming.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 10,318.16 -14.28

NASDAQ 2,146.04 -10.78

SP500 1,091.38 -3.52

the week that was

2009-11-14T19:17:00.000-08:00

No numbers for this week as I was in travel status. Economic recovery seem to stop and start as the days/weeks/months go by. Good news followed by bad news and then repeat seems to be the MO lately.

The Prez is traveling, the markets are slowly trending back up again, testing 52 week high on a regular basis. Will holiday sales be strong this year?

Happy weekend.

DJIA getting up there

2009-11-09T21:23:00.000-08:00

The DJIA has another strong day, rocketing to the highest point in a year. Can it follow through?

Healthcare reform passed, the clock is ticking on the rest of the trading year. Making a dash for the finish.

DJIA 10,226.94 +203.52

NASDAQ 2,154.06 +41.62

SP500 1,093.08 +23.78

big ups/big downs

2009-11-02T00:51:00.000-08:00

Volatility is back with a vengeance. Big swings and the irrationality behind them. One day it is good news, the next it is bad. Who to believe?

Happy scary weekend.

DJIA 9,712.73 -249.85

NASDAQ 2,045.11 -52.44

SP500 1,036.19 -29.92

rising tide lifts all boats

2009-10-17T20:54:00.000-07:00

The general market continues to slowly rise. Even with forecasts of dismal earnings, some of the industry leaders in various sectors are reporting robust numbers compared to what was predicted by analysts.

Skipped a week, vacation, travel, that sort of thing...

Happy weekend.

DJIA 9,995.91 -67.03

NASDAQ 2,156.80 -16.49

SP500 1,087.68 -8.88

a day late...

2009-10-05T21:02:00.000-07:00

Big rally today to offset last Friday's sell-off. Much ado about nothing in the economy as the government battles back and forth about health care and the economy is trying to find a path.

Out of town over the weekend, now back at it for more. Go oil.

DJIA 9,599.75 +112.08

NASDAQ 2,068.15 +20.04

SP500 1,040.46 +15.25

the fade?

2009-09-27T13:33:00.001-07:00

Markets continue that 'toppy' look and a few down days towards the end of the week set things up for a move downward next week. Keep the stops tight and the the hold on profits tighter.

Happy Sunday - enjoy the last few hours of that weekend.

DJIA 9,665.19 -42.25

NASDAQ 2,090.92 -16.69

SP500 1,044.38 -6.40

questions

2009-09-13T11:08:00.000-07:00

What is this market going to do? Market sentiment is turning, or is it? The market look toppy or is it just taking a breather before charging higher? The trend seems to be breaking or are we consolidating? Ah, the questions that everybody asks but no one has the answers.

New PB on board, same Admin and T&A group, Redi is good to go - making the paperwork corrections and off it will go.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 9,605.41 -22.07

NASDAQ 2,080.90 -3.12

SP500 1,042.73 -1.41

happy labor day

2009-09-07T07:42:00.000-07:00

Long weekend - Labor Day -markets closed.

Typically the unofficial 'end of summer', people are back at their desks buying and selling. With the increased volatility as of late, will that pick up as there are now more people focused on their buy and sell lists?

DJIA 9,441.27 +96.66

NASDAQ 2,018.78 +35.58

SP500 1,016.40 +13.16

Monday AM update

2009-08-31T07:01:00.000-07:00

Busy weekend, another year older, doing the weekly update on Monday AM, starting the week on a lower note as the dow is off nearly 100 in the first 30 minutes of trading. What does the week hold?

DJIA 9,452.45 -91.75

NASDAQ 2,001.06 -27.71

SP500 1,016.43 -12.50

back at it

2009-08-24T06:59:00.000-07:00

last week was full of big up days and big down days, looks like volatility might be creeping back into the picture.

returning from the annual break, time to focus on the task at hand.

from Monday early AM:

DJIA 9,549.79 +43.83

NASDAQ 2,026.23 +5.33

SP500 1,031.52 +5.39

more of the same

2009-08-16T21:48:00.000-07:00

The weekend is over, didn't miss much, a couple of up days and a couple of down days last week. Hot August days, a embatted healthcare plan and news of money flows actually going back into the HF industry. Vacation dominates the month of August and while the $ managers are away the traders will play.

DJIA 9,321.40 -76.79

NASDAQ 1,985.52 -23.83

SP500 1,004.09 -8.64

money flows

2009-08-09T17:05:00.000-07:00

Weekend is almost gone, on vacation next 2 weeks, the dow and the other indices are running, having very good weeks.

Money is beginning to flow back into the HF industry. Good think. Seize the moment.

DJIA 9,370.07 +113.81

NASDAQ 2,000.25 +27.09

SP500 1,010.48 +13.40

July is a good month

2009-08-02T23:24:00.000-07:00

Good weekend?

DJIA 9,171.61 +17.15

NASDAQ 1,978.50 -5.80

SP500 987.48 +0.73

not a bad week after all

2009-07-24T13:44:00.001-07:00

dog days of summer continue - although you wouldn't know it by looking at the Dow which crested 9K this week for the first time in a long while. In a further sign of complacency, the VIX continues to make lower lows. Oil is up, as is tech with BIDU having a huge day. Financials had a rough day but overall had a good week as well. In the politico arena, health care dominates the current headlines as the dems fight to get their piece of legislation passed.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 9,093.24 +23.95

NASDAQ 1,965.96 -7.64

SP500 979.26 +2.97

the spiral

2009-07-10T14:20:00.000-07:00

Missed 2 consecutive Fridays due to vacations/out of town/travel. Last week the markets were closed in observance of Independence Day. Busy time of year when the summer months hit and the markets are quiet.

The gentle downward drift of the markets continues; a slow bleed off the highs of just several weeks ago. Finally reality is setting in and the realization that the economy is in the toilet and will be in the toilet for the foreseeable future is too strong a fact to continue to ignore in the markets.

Technically the markets are reaching a bit of support/consolidation so it remain to be seen whether that will hold and cause a rebound or if we continue south with lower pricing going forward.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,146.52 -36.65

NASDAQ 1,756.03 +3.48

SP500 879.13 -3.55

sideways trading

2009-06-20T21:46:00.000-07:00

Markets took a step back this week but gathered a bit of steam as the week came to a close. Tech is mostly leading the charge although even they took a collective breather this week. Not much new on the horizon and nothing to really move the markets. Continual poor news regarding the economy hits the wires and the markets don't even give it a passing glance. One of these days it is all going to catch up.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,539.73 -15.87

NASDAQ 1,827.47 +19.75

SP500 921.23 +2.86

the waiting game

2009-06-12T23:49:00.000-07:00

Most stocks continue to trade within a fairly tight range. Energy seems to be leading the markets and financials are waiting for the next big news event to drive that basket of stocks either up or down.

Oil remain above $70, some very smart investors are starting to put some scratch into the commercial real estate sector and the dollar continues its rough go.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,799.26 +28.34

NASDAQ 1,858.80 -3.57

SP500 946.21 +1.32

more of the same

2009-06-11T08:22:00.000-07:00

Oil is headed back up, over $70 a barrel again, just in time for summer driving season, funny how it works like that every year.

The BAC/MER merger is under scrutiny in Washington this week as emails are now showing that some of the dirty laundry that was at first though to be hidden was actually known by the acquiring party.

HF's had one of their best months in years when they post 5% returns for the month of May. I guess when some have fallen so far, it's easy to claw back 5%.

The VIX continues to trend downward, currently at around 27.

this market wants to go higher

2009-06-06T10:02:00.000-07:00

despite more bad news, such as rising unemployment, the market sees it as a positive as the number of unemployed people didn't rise as much as they anticipated. So the economy is still going down the crapper - just not as fast and with as much force.

Tech is rallying, oil is sliding back after hitting 7 month highs. Keep riding the bull and get ready to hop off quickly if this bear market rally gives it up.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,763.13 +12.89

NASDAQ 1,849.42 -0.60

SP500 940.09 -2.37

wrapping up a short week

2009-05-29T13:43:00.000-07:00

The bull rally continues to roll on - even if with a little less steam. But the good news continues and the long side still looks like the best place for profits.

The market rallied hard into the close - not that it means much for Monday morning - but it is better than a hard sell-off.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,500.33 +96.53

NASDAQ 1,774.33 +22.54

SP500 919.14 +12.31

teetering

2009-05-15T14:31:00.000-07:00

The dow and the naz and the sp500 are looking a bit rough around the edges. After a huge multi-month surge from the lows of early March, the bear rally may be losing a bit of steam. We have made it through earning season and the release of the bank stress tests. There may not be sufficient good news to propel this market higher. With a lack of drive, the markets could begin drifting lower.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,268.64 -62.68

NASDAQ 1,680.14 -9.07

SP500 882.88 -10.19

the rally keeps going

2009-05-02T22:37:00.000-07:00

Happy weekend.

The markets looked strong again this week. Next week the results of the bank stress tests will be announced. Energy is leading the pack as financials wait for the news.

DJIA 8,212.41 +44.29

NASDAQ 1,719.20 +1.90

SP500 877.52 +4.71

dropping the VIX

2009-04-17T13:45:00.000-07:00

The VIX is dropping, now down to approximately 34. The VIX dropping thru the support in the high 30's signals the bullish run may continue. The earnings are coming fast and furious and mostly positive although most experts acknowledge we are in a bear market rally and even a few have gone on to say that we will be re-testing the lows of February and November.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,131.33 +5.90

NASDAQ 1,673.07 +2.63

SP500 869.60 +4.30

back again

2009-04-16T14:35:00.000-07:00

Last post was Friday the 13th....rather ominous. Regular updates start again tomorrow. Stay tuned. We only had the largest bear market rally in the last several decades that took place over the last 4 weeks. SP500 from the mid 600's to the mid 800's. Not bad at all.

a week-long rally

2009-03-13T13:09:00.000-07:00

After being oversold last week, the markets put on an impressive rally, up 10% and the biggest rally in 4 months. Most stocks were up, a good week to be long for sure.

Happy Friday the 13th.

DJIA 7,223.98 +53.92

NASDAQ 1,431.50 +5.40

SP500 756.55 +5.81

how low can you go Mr. Dow?

2009-03-06T17:33:00.000-08:00

another mighty sell-off this week. breaking the lows going all the way back to '97 for the dow. Nasdaq is approaching its lows from '03.

Unemployment numbers came out this week, over 8% unemployment for the country, much higher in specific states hit hard.

Happy Friday.

more selling, less buying

2009-02-27T15:25:00.000-08:00

Shortened week last week - traveling and out of town last Friday so no post. Full week this week and a post this Friday.

Markets continue to struggle mightily with continued negative economic news coming out almost daily. Couple that with the back-and-forth dialogue regarding the nationalisation of some of the country's largest financial institutions, and one has themselves a recipe for a hearty sell-off in the equity markets.

The promise of a new administration being able to deliver us from 'evil' has failed to materialize. People are coming around to the fact that we are in a long drawn-out recession/depression and it will be a long U-shaped recovery that will not be in any hurry to resolve itself. The mortgage hangover continues to haunt the national economy and the sub-prime mess continues to ripple throughout the international economies. With more mortgages ready to re-set their rates the number of foreclosures will not decline any time soon.

Oil has edged up into the mid 40's again after re-testing the low 30's. OPEC continues to muddle through supply and demand issues and the commodity markets experience knee-jerk reactions to the mandates and quotas being supplied by those nations controlling the supply. Foreign exchanges are also in the midst of a hard downturn with the DAX, CAC and FTSE all having rough weeks.

The scandals and blow-ups at least within the alternative investment community have seemed to have subsided lately as other more prominent stories such as the ones with BAC and C dominate the headlines.

The topic of carried interest is moving to the forefront as legislators scrounge to find new ways to generate tax revenue for budget straining under a bloated deficit. All is well for now at least as the HF managers are concerned.

Turning to the indices, the DJIA is flirting with breaking through 7K. The SP500 broke through the important 800 level without even thinking twice and the Nasdaq is firmly trading well below 1500. The lows of 2002/2003 are being tested by the DJIA and S&P 500 and are definitely within reach at this point for the Naz. If we break through those last bastions of support, well, watch out below.

Still plenty of short candidates and to the long side the spread between value and price is getting wider every day.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 7,062.93 -119.15

NASDAQ 1,377.84 -13.63

SP500 735.09 -17.74

long weekend

2009-02-15T11:34:00.000-08:00

Looks like Congress may have actually passed the stimulus package on Friday. What impact this will have on the economy is up for debate - ultimately probably not much of an impact - at least right away. However, maybe this will at the least provide some direction to otherwise choppy markets. The markets have been trading sideways and consolidating with a tight range over the past month or two. Makes for difficult trading and the healthy stocks don't want to move higher and the sick stocks don't want to move lower. From a technical perspective the market indices look weak. The DJIA and SP500 look to be setting up to move lower and the Nasdaq is all over the place; meandering along trying to find a path. Of course, no reaction until confirmation. No prediction/just reaction.

Oil is back trading around $35/barrel and the equity markets are trying to figure out what to do with the banks such as C, BAC, WFC and others. Wild volatility and big volume keep the bank sector in play.

Long weekend makes for a short week upcoming.

Happy President's Day.

DJIA 7,850.41 -82.35

NASDAQ 1,534.36 -7.35

SP500 826.84 -8.35

Bear rally?

2009-02-08T12:34:00.000-08:00

Pretty good week to the upside. The averages were up for the week. The S&P and the Nasdaq having nice steady gains throughout. Most of the trades were to the long side as investors jumped into the stocks at the first sign of improved returns.

The economic stimulus package still looks to be passed and put into place. This will either be case of buy the rumor/sell the news, or this may actually be a catalyst to get things turned around for awhile.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,280.59 +217.52

NASDAQ 1,591.71 +45.47

SP500 868.60 +22.75

throw a tarp on it

2009-01-30T17:04:00.000-08:00

The markets looks and smell like road-kill. What better use for a TARP than to cover the rotting carcass with an ill-conceived and poorly executed plan.

The "O" Administration is off to a shaky start. They have their work cut out for them and it will be interesting to see how a relative rookie to beltway politics and global finance maneuvers through the obstacles and barriers to getting things resolved/fixed.

Markets are tough on the bulls right now but a feeding frenzy for the bears.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,000.86 -148.15

NASDAQ 1,476.42 -31.42

SP500 825.88 -19.26

taking it to the banks

2009-01-25T15:25:00.000-08:00

What is going on with the economic bailout? The banks are generally getting crushed. Anything remotely associated with finance/banking/leasing/$$$ is getting battered. Are we headed towards nationalisation?

On a positive note for the bulls. The educational services sector - mainly continuing education firms - is rocking and rolling. Many of the companies within this niche sector are at all-time highs or at least 52 weeks highs.

A few more weeks til it's 'go' time.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,077.56 -45.24

NASDAQ 1,477.29 +11.80

SP500 831.95 +4.45

long weekend

2009-01-18T12:08:00.001-08:00

In the middle of a long weekend. Holiday tomorrow and the big inauguration day on Tuesday. A new day - a new administration. Any real changes? Who knows but probably not.

Clock is ticking.

Happy long weekend.

DJIA 8,281.22 +68.73

NASDAQ 1,529.33 +17.49

SP500 850.12 +6.38

that's the market we know and love

2009-01-09T14:34:00.000-08:00

After a brief respite from the doom and gloom, a bad jobs report and more fall-out from myriad crises that are hitting the street and the economy, the markets resumed their losing ways. Having a pretty good sell-off, the likes we haven't seen in a little while. On a positive note if one is a bull, this week's sell-off brought us to the lower edge of a mini upward trending channel. If the markets continue with this trend that started in late November, we would be moving up next week, towards the upper edge of the upward trending trade channel.

In addition to the above mentioned, oil is volatile again, all over the board with the middle east unrest (Israel and hamas firing rockets at each other) and Russian and the Ukraine battling over pipelines, jumping between $35 and $50+ a barrel. Real estate continues to slump - both regionally and nationally, and then retailers announce sluggish and disappointing sales figures and revise estimates going forward. In industry news, the average HF lost approx 18% this year but if one would have put their $$$ into an index fund, the investor would have lost twice that much. On a brighter note, the short-selling fund were up around 30% this year. Not bad returns for a down year.

Lots of cash on the sidelines, lots of fund shuttering, lots of banks losing their prop desks. Lots of fall-out and shake-out in the industry. There's still room for the little guy with a pool of capital, a
dedicated strategy and the discipline to stick to it and deliver returns to the investors.

Push, push, push. The final push.

Also, the plan goes into effect next week. Discipline.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,599.18 -143.28

NASDAQ 1,571.59 -45.42

SP500 890.35 -19.38

coal thesis

2009-01-04T12:33:00.001-08:00

Doing some research and came across one of many industries that had a hot first half to 2008 and then cooled dramatically in 2009: coal miners and producers.

Found this list of battered stocks that are turning the corner. Some names sit on the top 10 lists of some major HF and investment firms.

MEE
ANR
ICO
NCOC
JRCC
BTU
ACI
PCX
CNX
WLT

All had nice gains on Friday. Could be good for a short to medium term investment if they show opportunity to buy at a slight pull back. The stop on most of these stocks is the recent low from the past month or so.

The thesis: these companies produce a product that will be in demand as sluggish economies pick up steam. Even without the pick-up in the economy, the demand for this product is fairly inelastic - and an oversold industry with a product that the world needs is an undervalued basket of stocks. Place your bets.

new year

2009-01-02T14:25:00.000-08:00

Another short week with short sessions. Out of town on vacation. Markets doing their low volume thing heading into the close of the year. A bit of window-dressing and some selling for tax purposes - not much else happening.

Oil has popped back to the mid 40's per barrel. The Madoff scandal continues to develop and roll along. Lots of people burned in that one.

Less than 3 weeks until the new administration takes office. Still unsure how the markets will take the news.

Happy Friday and happy new year.

DJIA 9,034.69 +258.30

NASDAQ 1,632.21 +55.18

SP500 931.80 +28.55

holiday cheer

2008-12-28T13:20:00.000-08:00

Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah and happy new year.

shortened sessions, low volume, low volatility, everyone (well almost) is taking a breather before the clock re-sets on January 2nd.

Happy short week.

DJIA 8,515.55 +47.07

NASDAQ 1,530.24 +5.34

SP500 872.80 +4.65

'08 winding down

2008-12-19T13:59:00.000-08:00

oil keeps tumbling, now trading under $35 a barrel. The big oil analysts who were calling for $200/barrel just a few months ago are now targeting $25/barrel oil. Gotta love the sell-side guys.

Looks like Big Auto is going to get some sort of bailout. It is one of the last things that the current lame duck administration is going to push through. Might as well just add it to our tab, guys.

The continuing saga of Bernie Madoff fills the news sites and blogs as more info is learned about Madoff's history, the investors caught up in the scheme and the complete and utter miss by the SEC on this guy's operation.

Interesting article in the current issue of Vanity Fair. Gives a rather depressing outlook on the culture of Wall Street and how the hit to that sector is having ripple effects into real estate, art, the nyc economy, and even the actions of the still-standing funds and firms.

Holidays are almost upon us. Short week next week, including travel and snowy weather. Good times.

So close one can taste it.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,579.11 -25.88

NASDAQ 1,564.32 +11.95

SP500 887.88 +2.60

due diligence

2008-12-12T15:04:00.000-08:00

What a week and it ended with a bang.

Three words: Dreier and Madoff. And the utter and complete lack of due diligence on the part of the institutions and individuals who were duped by these guys.

The former a blue-chip white-shoe Park Avenue attorney who stole hundreds of millions from HFs. The latter, a well-respected 40+ year veteran of the Street who took HNW individuals and institutions for billions. The fall-out from the escapades of these two crooks will go on for years.

In a much brighter note, the schedule opens up and the final push for the last 19 days of 2008 continue.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,629.68 +64.59

NASDAQ 1,540.72 +32.84

SP500 879.73 +6.14

rollercoaster cont.

2008-12-07T19:26:00.000-08:00

Missed the post for last week given the holiday and the shorted Friday session. Never fear, the markets continue their epic rollercoaster ride to end all coaster rides. This week, more of the same, big day up to end the week. Next week? Who knows.

Coming into the holidays, the retailers are hoping for a miracle, the unemployement rate jumped again and the bailout of the 3 auto-makers is on the front burner for the government to figure out.

Someone this week said oil is going to $25 a barrel. Crazier things have happened.

Happy weekend - what is left of it.

DJIA 8,635.42 +259.18

NASDAQ 1,509.31 +63.75

SP500 876.07 +30.85

late day r-a-l-l-y!!!

2008-11-21T17:52:00.000-08:00

complete opposite of yesterday. Crazy times call for crazy markets. This market is like Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde and both are hopped up on crank.

Late in the day the market took off, closing near its highs for the day.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,046.42 +494.13

NASDAQ 1,384.35 +68.23

SP500 800.03 +47.59

late day f-a-d-e...

2008-11-20T14:13:00.000-08:00

the markets continue their perpetual death spiral, the whole ugly mess circling the drain. We keep at it we're going to crush the lows set back in '03. Another ugly week to an ugly month to an ugly quarter to what is ending up to be a very ugly year.

More funds continue to announce major losses. More firms speculated to be on their way out of business. One thing to note: there is a ton of cash on the sidelines. To prepare for redemptions, managers have been selling equities and raising cash. Some multi-billion dollar funds are down to several hundred million in positions and the rest in cash. When the tide turns and who knows when that will be, the cash will be put to work. For the meantime, there are still plenty of opportunities to the short side as stocks continue their free falls.

On the bright side, it's getting cheaper to fill up that SUV each week.

Someone once said that the best and brightest opportunity exists in the darkest and most depressed period. Are we there? Yes we are.

Happy Thursday - get prepped for a short and sure to be volatile week upcoming.

DJIA 7,552.29 -444.99

NASDAQ 1,316.12 -70.30

SP500 752.44 -54.14

selling into the close

2008-11-14T14:52:00.000-08:00

A rough ending to another rough week for the bulls. The bears may have reason to get excited as the indices start their move towards the bottom of the downward trending trade channel. After lots of commotion and new conferences and hearings and the like, ultimately there has been no sea change in the nation's economy or the global financial problems that are facing not just the US but Europe, Asia and other parts of the globe.

So Soros came out and said that the HF industry will be decimated. Yes, funds will shutter their doors and close as assets are pulled out due to poor performance. However, a good performing fund that employs prudent use of leverage and has rigid risk control guidelines in place will continue to gather assets and flourish. The great managers of the past decade may be turning over as a new breed of manager takes their place.

In other related global news, oil is now trading in the mid 50's. There were a lot of oil bulls out there that have gotten absolutely decimated with this oil sell-off.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,497.31 -337.94

NASDAQ 1,516.85 -79.85

SP500 873.29 -38.00

another volatile week

2008-11-09T08:48:00.000-08:00

so Obama is now the president. Now what? The party in the markets quickly ended after the election as the down saw one of its worst 2-days slides ever. Despite a pending change in the administration, we as a nation are still left with an ailing economy with a high unemployment rate and fighting a war that is draining the lifeblood from the country's coffers.

The market bounced back a bit on Friday but the current climate is still the status quo. More rough times ahead which means more downside volatility for the markets.

Happy weekend.

DJIA 8,943.81 +248.02

NASDAQ 1,647.40 +38.70

SP500 930.66 +25.78

Elected.

2008-11-04T00:35:00.000-08:00

The first trading day of November is in the books. Here's to another month. Probably unlike the previous one. That one was one for the record books.

Today is the day the US chooses it's president for the next 4 years. Get out and vote and do what will be best for the economy in the long run. And the one that will end the war sooner than later.

On vacation last week/weekend. Missed the regular Friday update. I was down in the great state of Texas doing fun stuff.

Here's to motivation all the way around.

Happy Election Day.

DJIA 9,319.83

NASDAQ 1,726.33

SP500 966.30

next leg down?

2008-10-24T17:25:00.000-07:00

After a few days of range bound trading, the markets made a decisive move to the bottom of this most recent consolidation, poised to move lower as the bad news just keeps on rollin'. As one astute market observer stated, the markets will continue to trend downward and sell-off because there are no buyers to step in and start standing firm on the bid.

Broker-dealers are short on cash, HF's are sitting on the sidelines to have cash ready for redemptions, the retail investor is still selling and putting their funds into money markets. Some people are trying to bottom fish aka catch a falling knife and they're going to get burned all-the-way-down. Until there is a huge catalyst for change or until the market gets to the point where valuations make it so ridiculously obvious that we've reached bottom (stock price = cash per share on the balance sheets), we could see lower lows and more big down days.

In other news, oil continues to drop, hard to believe it was $147 a barrel a few short months ago. The election is finally less than 2 weeks away. Holidays are already being forecast as the worst holiday buying season in decades.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 8,378.95

NASDAQ 1,552.03

SP500 876.77

ups and downs

2008-10-20T00:01:00.000-07:00

this week saw the largest 1 day point gain in Dow history. It also had some other big down and up days thrown in there as well.

Just a few short weeks left until the election is finally over and we can all get on with our lives.

Oil is now trading at less than 50% of what is was trading for just a few short months ago.

Q4 is more than upon us. Just a bit over 2+ months left in the trading year.

Here's to another crazy week.

DJIA 8,852.22

NASDAQ 1,711.29

SP500 940.55

fuel

2008-10-10T05:14:00.000-07:00

this was yesterday:

DJIA 8,579.19 -678.91

NASDAQ 1,645.12 -95.21

SP500 909.92 -75.02

Those indices are getting low. Low like the lows of late '02 and early '03. And to throw more fuel on the fire, Asian markets were down again big on Thursday night/Friday morning. What will Friday bring?

The hastily put together bail-out plan is not working out like Paulson & Bernanke & Co. thought it would. It doesn't even scratch the surface at addressing what is wrong with the US and the global financial system. Now the government realizes they are on the hook for all of AIG's losses and they essentially wrote a blank check to AIG to fix whatever problems come along.

More banks continue to come out of the woodwork and announce their woes. Some HF's are making a killing with this, shorting the indices and shorting pretty much anything that trades. And now that the financial institution short ban has ended, those firms - or what is left of them - are ripe for the shorting. There are other HF's that saw big redemptions last week and as they continue to de-leverage, they realize how ugly the equity picture is in their funds.

Unfortunately for most Americans, the markets are not going to turn around anytime soon. Don't be looking for the 3000 point bounce back in the Dow in the near future. The subprime credit hangover is going to be here for a while.

In some good news, oil is back down under $90 and the prices are slowly beginning to drop at the gas pumps.

Happy Friday and welcome back to work from Yom Kippur.

first week of Q4

2008-10-03T17:27:00.000-07:00

More fall-out.

-Wells Fargo will step in front of Citigroup and buy up Wachovia
-oil back under $100 - previous run-up now credited to a squeeze
-September looks to be the worst month for HF's in the last decade
-redemptions for funds were due on Tuesday - the totals are still unknown
-lots of HF's closing - on pace to be the most since 2005
-congress finally passed the bail-out package after initial failing
-the short ban on financial institutions has been extended
-the election is 1 month away - Obama has a slight lead in the polls

Q4 started this week. Let's go.

Happy Friday.

DJIA 10,325.38

NASDAQ 1,947.39

SP500 1,099.23